Sports Services: Touts
and Louts
The various trade publications of the sports betting industry
are inundated with advertisements for sports services,
organizations willing to sell you betting advice for a price. To
my knowledge these publications do not require verification of
claims made by advertisers. It seems that the publications in
question want only the sports service's money. Most will print
whatever you want as long as you pay. Similar claims are made
through the mails, to anyone who has answered a sports service ad
or subscribed to a sports betting publication.
One of the problems with many sports bettors is they are
willing to pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for advice from
sports services without checking out the validity of the claims
and the quality of the advice they are purchasing. Many of these
individuals are astute businessmen who wouldn't think of making a
business decision without checking it out first from every
conceivable angle. They protect themselves by insuring their
homes and valuables. yet they are ready to believe any lies the
gimmick-oriented sports service will tell them.
Gimmicks
What are some of the more common gimmicks used by the
majority of sports services intent on getting the customer's
money without necessarily producing winners?
Locks
I guess the word lock has been used more than any other to
convince the naive sports gambler to give his money to
self-proclaimed geniuses. When the sports service uses the word
lock, they are stating that the game cannot lose. They have found
that if they say it loud enough and print it bold enough, a
certain percentage of players will believe them. They have also
found that the more money they ask for their lock, the easier it
is to sell.
The lock concept preys upon the bettor who has been losing
and wants to recoup quickly. This kind of player is looking for
the miracle that will bail him out. In this quest for a miracle,
the bettor loses sight of reality. Always keep in mind that a
play is a play. It can lose or win. The "expert" with
the lock is implying that he knows more than the linesmaker, the
bookies, the wise guys, the players and the officials. Almost
anything can happen in a football game and a turnover or bad punt
can totally alter the course of a game.
Never forget that a lock is an even-money bet, minus the
juice. It should be treated no different than any other play on a
justifiable rating system. if the play is so good, why is the
service selling it to you? For the price of a plane ticket, the
seller could come to Las Vegas and clean up. The fact that none
of these "locksmiths" ever do this should be cause for
caution.
Double Dealing
Imagine a sports service that is not monitored by any
reputable monitoring service. Let's suppose also that the sports
service claims it wins 70% of its selections. With this hype to
substantiate its offer, the service offers a 1000-star lock for a
game next weekend and the cost to you is $150, $250, or even
more.
If the sports service gets 500 people in its net, it is easy
to calculate what they can realize. All they need do is deal half
the customers one side of the game and the other half the other
side. This guarantees 250 winners. Now the ante goes up. The next
week the salesman talks with the winning clients and asks,
"How did you like that big winner we gave you last week? I
hope you got down big." If the price was $150 for the first
game, the price may rise to $200 or $300 for the next release.
The second week cuts the number of winners from 250 to 125 and
continues until the final split. No matter what week you lose,
you'll end up a victim, disillusioned and broke, while the
service has extracted thousands of dollars in fees with their
scams.
The Lay-Off Scam
The tout service offers you the so-called "can't
lose" pick for $300, guaranteeing your money back if you
lose. The service lays of $165 ($150, plus $15 vigorish) on the
other side, leaving him $135. If you win, the service loses $165
to the bookmaker and profits $135. If you lose, the service
collects $150 profit from his bookmaker and returns your $300.
This accomplishes two things for the scam artists. They have
gained your confidence. They also will be back for more easy
money. It doesn't really matter whether the service picks 50% or
60% winners; at $150 a pick (assuming 50% winners), the service
will do very well.
Returning More Than You Paid
"Pay me $300 for the game and I'll pay you $450 if it
loses." Have you seen this one in sports publications?
Here's how it works. The service gets perhaps 100 responses. They
give 50 people one side and 50 people the other side. At $300 a
pop, they take in $30,000. But they don't keep it all. They
continue the scam, week in and week out, until their customers
run out of cash. In the scenario described here, the 50 losers
will receive $450 each, a total of $22,500, and the sports
service pockets $7500.
Another version of the same scam has the service charging $50
a game and offering a pay back of $60 on losers. This scam can
have you paying for net losers. Suppose you bought seven plays at
$50 each. The service deals you three winners and four losers.
They return you $240, leaving them a profit of $110 for one net
loser. Seeing the check from the service for your losers can lead
you to proclaim, "What an honest service!" You're right
back the next week with $350 more. The service can't lose unless
they come up with a 1-6 or 0-7 weekend.After a week or two, they
think they have you and may suggest, "Just apply the $180
(for three losers) to your next week's fee of $350."
There are a number of other scams, but these provide you with
a number of examples to consider.
Protecting Yourself
What can you do to protect yourself? There are several things
you should know:
1. Be skeptical when anyone offers you a sure thing. If it
sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Anyone who offers
you a lock is insulting your intelligence.
2. If a service tells you they are great or hot, ask who
monitors their selections. Make sure the monitoring service
they cite is credible and not in collusion with them.
Subscribe to a monitoring newsletter. Ask for credentials and
valid testimonials. Have they entered any handicapping
contests? What was their record? Be sure to evaluate their
performance in terms of net winners or units, because this is
the only true barometer. If they win the most "funny
money" in a contest, it might only reflect the luckiest
crapshooter in the competition. A service which wins a high
percentage of only a few games will limit both your action
and your profits.
3. Beware of the "infinite star" approach to
rating selections. This is where the service rates their
plays on too broad a spectrum (one to 20, for example). A
good rating system should use a ratio of one to four. Two- or
three-star games should make up the bulk of the plays. Under
such a scheme, one would be a light play, two a regular play,
three a strong play and four an exceptionally strong play. Be
careful buying rated plays and be suspect if they induce you
to load up on one play.
4. Check out any sports service before paying anything.
If a service offers you a money back guarantee, get it
spelled out in writing. Be sure they are a legitimate
business. Do they have a business license? Obtain bank
references. Ask if they are monitored. Are they incorporated?
Who are the principals and what are their personal
credentials and references? Above all, make sure there is no
way for them to win if you lose. A money back guarantee is
only as good as the integrity of the guarantor.
5. If a service should offer you a net winner program,
make sure it's equitable. If they come up with net winners,
pay them. If they deal you net losers, they should carry the
losses forward. The net winner program is not good business
for the service, nor totally good for the player. On a weekly
basis, the service can hold back its plays if it is ahead (to
guarantee a payday) or load the player up with plays near the
end of the week (to bail out and make some money from the
client). It's a bad deal for everyone involved.
6. Make sure the service you are buying from is not
connected with several other services owned by the same
principals. you could find yourself being bounced around
following a losing streak by one of the services. There are
several big operators who have extracted many thousands of
dollars from clients in one season using such techniques.
With certain types of clients, it is more profitable to sell
losers, then use a "bail out" pitch from another of
their services. Beware!
7. Be careful when giving your credit card number to any
sports service. You might be better off using another form of
payment. There have been instances where salesmen have
intentionally billed credit cards long after a client has
ceased doing business with a service. I know this is the
actual policy of one service. Keep in mind that an otherwise
honest service can be victimized by its own commissioned
salesmen who engage in this practice.
Adherence to these guidelines will guarantee the player a
fairer deal when dealing with a sports service. For further
information on choosing a sports service, see Martin Mendelsohn's
"How to Select a Sports Service"
(excerpt)
How to Become a Loser--Suggestion #7
Why bet $11 to win $10 when you can bet $10 to win $200? Play
parlay cards. The sports book has to make a profit and these
cards net them many times the profit of a straight 11 to 10 bet.
A five team parlay win pays a whopping 20-1. Forget that the odds
of hitting one are 31-1. Let the other guys worry about that. If
you think you can overcome the percentage, go ahead and play them
all.
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